Fig. 4

Results from a model of phenology (a through d; DFF = date of first flight) and a model of species richness (e through h; SR = species richness), as well as plots of weather variables through time (i through l; ENSO = El Niño Southern Oscillation). In the model results (a through h), the values shown are β coefficients (with standard errors) that summarize the effect of a particular weather variable (while controlling for other variables) on either phenology (DFF) or species richnes (SR). Trend lines are only shown in plots where the effect of a particular weather variable changes with elevation (* P < 0.05; ** P < 0.01; *** P < 0.001; see Additional file 1: Table S4 for additional details). In panels i through k, weather patterns are visualized using splines with five degrees of freedom; panel l is the El Niño index (ONI) for each year. Weather variables are shown as z-standardized values in panels i through k, and site specific colors in all plots are the same as in Fig. 1a